[SMM Nickel Lunchtime Review] On August 14, nickel prices jumped initially and then pulled back. The M2 balance at month-end July was up 8.8% YoY.

SMM Nickel News on August 14:

Macro News:

(1) European leaders urged Trump to pressure Putin into agreeing to a ceasefire and meeting with Zelensky. According to sources, if a ceasefire agreement is reached, Ukraine's European allies are "considering easing sanctions on Russia." Trump: If Russia does not stop the conflict, it will face consequences. He hopes to hold a second meeting with Putin as soon as possible. If the "Trump-Putin meeting" goes smoothly, a trilateral meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine will be held.

(2) The central bank released data showing that at the end of July, the balance of broad money (M2) was 329.94 trillion yuan, up 8.8% YoY. In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, with household loans increasing by 680.7 billion yuan. Among them, short-term loans decreased by 383 billion yuan, while medium and long-term loans increased by 1.06 trillion yuan. From January to July, the incremental social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.12 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year.

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM #1 refined nickel price is 122,100-124,600 yuan/mt, with an average price of 123,350 yuan/mt, down 450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for spot premiums of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 2,000-2,200 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,100 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for premiums and discounts of electrodeposited nickel from mainstream domestic brands is -100-300 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2509) rose slightly and then pulled back today. As of the midday session, SHFE nickel was quoted at 121,530 yuan/mt, with an intraday decline of 0.99%.

After the release of US July CPI data, the market's expectation for the probability of an interest rate cut in September rose to over 94%. The US dollar index pulled back to around 98. Trump publicly pressured Fed Chairman Powell to "cut interest rates immediately," further strengthening easing expectations. However, geopolitical and policy uncertainties, as well as high inventory pressure, limited the gains. In the short term, nickel prices will oscillate amid the tug-of-war between weak fundamentals and macro sentiment support, with a price range of 119,000-123,000 yuan/mt.